2015 has been an interesting year in many ways – Political unrests were dominating the newsworldwide, there was and still is an ongoing dramatic drop in oil prices potentially destabilizingthe oil-rich countries, the Euro remains weak, and also the GDP development, while still moderate,was below the average of the last few years. Nevertheless, for the tourism industry 2015 has beena great year with people around the world travelling more and more. “However, with the recentterror attacks in popular holiday destinations such as Egypt and Turkey, as well as the attacks inParis, the international tourism industry is looking at the travel year 2016 with quite some skepti-cism” as Rolf Freitag, president of the Tourism Consultancy IPK International explained.
2015 was another excellent travel year
Despite the fact that many destinations faced challenges in 2015, overall worldwide outboundtravel grew by 4.6% reaching over a billion international trips. Over the last few years, we haveseen an average growth of approximately 50 million more outbound trips every year, hence an in-crease of +34% in the last 6 years. But not only are people travelling more, they are also spendingmore over the years. The average spending per outbound trip increased by 4% to 1,825 USD. Thecontinuous trend of more trips and higher expenditure generated a 50% increase in global turno-ver in the past 6 years, as per the latest results of IPK’S World Travel Monitor®. This annual surveyanalyzes the outbound travel behavior in more than 60 countries worldwide, which covers morethan 90% of the global outbound demand.
Despite the fact that many destinations faced challenges in 2015, overall worldwide outboundtravel grew by 4.6% reaching over a billion international trips. Over the last few years, we haveseen an average growth of approximately 50 million more outbound trips every year, hence an in-crease of +34% in the last 6 years. But not only are people travelling more, they are also spendingmore over the years. The average spending per outbound trip increased by 4% to 1,825 USD. Thecontinuous trend of more trips and higher expenditure generated a 50% increase in global turno-ver in the past 6 years, as per the latest results of IPK’S World Travel Monitor®. This annual surveyanalyzes the outbound travel behavior in more than 60 countries worldwide, which covers morethan 90% of the global outbound demand.
Asia continues to drive global demand growth
Asia remains the number one source of global demand increases, where trips from China aloneincreased by 25% last year, representing a plus of 8 million trips in 2015. When comparing con-tinents, Europe (together with North America) on the other hand has shown one of the lowestgrowth rates in the past few years. In absolute terms however, Europe remains the number onesource market with more than half of the world outbound travel volume. For the top countries oforigin for international travel, Germany still takes the lead, followed by the USA and Great Britain,as well as China and France although with some distance. Moreover, it is remarkable that 85% ofthe entire global outbound growth in 2015 has been generated by only 10 countries of origin.
Asia remains the number one source of global demand increases, where trips from China aloneincreased by 25% last year, representing a plus of 8 million trips in 2015. When comparing con-tinents, Europe (together with North America) on the other hand has shown one of the lowestgrowth rates in the past few years. In absolute terms however, Europe remains the number onesource market with more than half of the world outbound travel volume. For the top countries oforigin for international travel, Germany still takes the lead, followed by the USA and Great Britain,as well as China and France although with some distance. Moreover, it is remarkable that 85% ofthe entire global outbound growth in 2015 has been generated by only 10 countries of origin.
Inbound tourism 2015
Also in the context of inbound performance, Asia takes the lead in terms of the highest growthrate, followed by North America and Europe. However, when it comes to total numbers, Europe asa destination receives three times more international trips than Asia. When comparing inboundperformance by individual destinations, USA is slightly ahead of Spain, followed by Germany.With quite a gap, France and Italy complement the lead of the top five destinations for internatio-nal travel. Nevertheless, among these popular destination, Germany was able to gain the highestgrowth rate in the last year.
Also in the context of inbound performance, Asia takes the lead in terms of the highest growthrate, followed by North America and Europe. However, when it comes to total numbers, Europe asa destination receives three times more international trips than Asia. When comparing inboundperformance by individual destinations, USA is slightly ahead of Spain, followed by Germany.With quite a gap, France and Italy complement the lead of the top five destinations for internatio-nal travel. Nevertheless, among these popular destination, Germany was able to gain the highestgrowth rate in the last year.
Current political unrest and terror attacks likely to influence the tourism sector
IPK International conducted a special survey in February 2016 in the 42 most important sourcemarkets worldwide for international tourism among 50.000 respondents. The study revealed thatfor 40 percent of international travelers, the recent instability and terror warnings will have an in-fluence on their travel plans for 2016. However, the survey exhibits regional differences betweenEurope, Asia as well as North and South America. Moreover, the survey examined what kind ofinfluence the situation could have on the travel behavior.
IPK International conducted a special survey in February 2016 in the 42 most important sourcemarkets worldwide for international tourism among 50.000 respondents. The study revealed thatfor 40 percent of international travelers, the recent instability and terror warnings will have an in-fluence on their travel plans for 2016. However, the survey exhibits regional differences betweenEurope, Asia as well as North and South America. Moreover, the survey examined what kind ofinfluence the situation could have on the travel behavior.
Hence, 15% of international travelersindicated that they will not travel abroad in 2016 or will only go on domestic trips within their owncountry. A further 25% stated that they will still be travelling abroad, yet only to destinations theyperceive as safe. This obviously leads to the crucial question of what destinations are perceivedas safe? In this context, IPK International also gained interesting insights into what destinationshave a safe image, and there are quite some big differences. Therefore, IPK expects demand shiftsto occur in 2016, with both, high growth potentials for some, but also high risks for others.
Outlook 2016
“Worldwide we expect global outbound trips to increase by 3 percent. However, without the im-pact of terrorism these days, we would be able to predict a growth rate of 4.5 percent”, explainsRolf Freitag during his ITB presentation on March 9. The recent terrorist attacks have consequent-ly led to an unusually large uncertainty when planning a trip in 2016.According to the World Travel Monitor®, Asians will again travel more abroad in 2016, although ata lower growth rate compared to previous years. In contrast to China and India, Japan howevercould see some declines. Slight growth from the US is possible, whereas a decline in Canadacannot be ruled out.In 2016, despite terror fears, international travel of Europeans is expected to continuously show amoderate positive trend. A growing demand is emerging from the Netherlands, UK, Switzerlandand Germany – yet declines are to be expected from Russia, Greece and Italy.Overall, IPK International’s Outbound Travel Forecast for 2016 predicts an increase of 4% fromAsia and 2% from Europe, while a stagnation is expected for outbound travel from the Americas.
“Worldwide we expect global outbound trips to increase by 3 percent. However, without the im-pact of terrorism these days, we would be able to predict a growth rate of 4.5 percent”, explainsRolf Freitag during his ITB presentation on March 9. The recent terrorist attacks have consequent-ly led to an unusually large uncertainty when planning a trip in 2016.According to the World Travel Monitor®, Asians will again travel more abroad in 2016, although ata lower growth rate compared to previous years. In contrast to China and India, Japan howevercould see some declines. Slight growth from the US is possible, whereas a decline in Canadacannot be ruled out.In 2016, despite terror fears, international travel of Europeans is expected to continuously show amoderate positive trend. A growing demand is emerging from the Netherlands, UK, Switzerlandand Germany – yet declines are to be expected from Russia, Greece and Italy.Overall, IPK International’s Outbound Travel Forecast for 2016 predicts an increase of 4% fromAsia and 2% from Europe, while a stagnation is expected for outbound travel from the Americas.
